EXCLUSIVE - NICOTINE SCANDAL EXPOSED

Wastewater Data Shatters Government’s Smoking Claims

by Pippa Starr

26 August 2025

In brief:

The Inconvenient Truth

The Federal Government says Australians are “quitting smoking in record numbers.

”But the latest Australian Crime Intelligence Commission (ACIC) wastewater report tells a completely different story:

👉 Nicotine use has gone UP in every state and territory.

👉 More nicotine is being consumed today than eight years ago.

👉 Half of all smokers are now buying from the black market.

This isn’t a victory for health, it’s a win for organised crime!

Black Market Bonanza

• Legal pack of cigarettes: around $55

• Black market pack: $10 or less

Who benefits? Not smokers. Not taxpayers. Not public health.The winners are crime bosses like Kazem “Kaz” Hamad and the Dib brothers, running nicotine cartels while Canberra looks the other way.

“Our tobacco control policies are not working.” - Rohan Pike, former Border Force Tobacco Strike Team leader

A Policy in Collapse

For 20 years, tax hikes may have curbed smoking. But today, they’ve become the engine room of the black market.

• Enforcement costs billions but does not cut supply.

• Seizures make headlines but streets stay flooded.

• Safer nicotine products remain banned, pushing adults back to smoking.

“So far, hundreds of millions have been spent, but supply hasn’t fallen, profits flow straight to organised crime.” - Dr James Martin, Deakin University

The Data Buried in the Report

In 90 pages of spin, one line destroys the government’s narrative:

“Consumption of nicotine has increased over the life of the program.”

Instead of facing facts, ACIC has slowed its reports from quarterly to annual. Translation: less transparency, less accountability, and no urgency to fix a failing policy.

The Good News They Ignore

Wastewater shows much of the rise in nicotine comes from vapes and pouches—products proven to be far less harmful than smoking.

That should be celebrated as a breakthrough. Instead, prohibition keeps them in the shadows, under the control of crime syndicates instead of responsible retailers.

The National Scandal

• Australians are not quitting nicotine.

• Prohibition fuels crime.

• Smokers are trapped in a system that keeps them lighting up cancer sticks.

Harm reduction works. Regulation works. Prohibition doesn’t.

It’s time to face reality: Australia’s nicotine policy is broken, and it’s costing lives.

The federal government keeps telling Australians we’re “winning the war on smoking.” They love to roll out neat little figures from the AIHW suggesting daily smoking has plummeted to historic lows. But the latest wastewater report from the Australian Crime Intelligence Commission (ACIC) paints a very different, and far more inconvenient, picture: nicotine use is actually rising.

Note: Waste water reports cover around 56% of population which is far more accurate than a few handfuls (less than 20000) of people surveyed by Roy Morgan for an AIHW report

Yes, you read that right. Despite record cigarette taxes, despite border crackdowns, despite prohibition-style vaping laws, more nicotine was consumed in the past year than eight years ago. And it’s up in every single state and territory. That doesn’t look like a “victory.” It looks like a government clutching at a fantasy while organised crime laughs all the way to the bank.

The Black Market’s Golden Age

Here’s the reality: ordinary Australians haven’t given up nicotine, they’ve simply been pushed into the arms of the black market. Legally sold Cigarettes that cost $55 a pack gather dust on shelves at Woolies and IGA stores when they can be picked up for $15 or less on the street. Nicotine vapes and pouches, safer alternatives that could be regulated and sold by licensed retailers, are instead thriving in the shadows.

Half of all smokers are already buying illicit tobacco. And the big winners aren’t public health or Australian taxpayers, it’s crime bosses like Kazem “Kaz” Hamad and the Haddara and Dib brothers, who now run nicotine like a cartel. Every tax hike, every border bust, every “tough on vaping” press release is just free advertising for their business!~

A Policy That Keeps People Smoking

Even former Border Force leaders admit it: the government’s tobacco tax “lever” worked twenty years ago, but today it’s broken. Pushing prices sky-high has not reduced demand. It has only created perverse incentives, people switch to dodgy smokes, or worse, go back to smoking after trying (and being denied) safer nicotine alternatives like vaping.

Meanwhile, criminologists like Dr James Martin are crystal clear: government seizures are meaningless when supply on the street never dips. Nicotine flows in, profits pour out, and every extra billion spent on enforcement is a billion wasted.

The Data They Don’t Want You to See

One line buried deep in the ACIC’s 90-page report says it all:

“Consumption of nicotine has increased over the life of the program.”

That one sentence torpedoes years of government spin. Yet instead of treating it as urgent, the ACIC has quietly decided to slow down its reporting. Translation: Australians will be kept in the dark for longer while policy continues to fail.

The delay isn’t just bad governance, it’s dangerous. Wastewater data has been one of the only reliable ways to cut through the fog of ideology and measure what’s really happening. By stretching out the timeline, the government ensures that public scrutiny, and the chance to correct course, is blunted.

The Good News They Ignore

Ironically, the same report shows that much of the growth in nicotine use is coming from vapes and pouches, products that are significantly less harmful than smoking. That should be celebrated as a public health breakthrough. Instead, these products remain effectively outlawed, ensuring that safer choices are driven underground and controlled by criminals instead of responsible businesses.

The Inconvenient Truth

This latest report confirms what vapers and smokers have been shouting for years: Prohibition doesn’t work!

Price-gouging doesn’t work!

Enforcement-only policies don’t work!

What does work?

Regulation. Retail access. Harm reduction.

The very things Australia’s government stubbornly refuses to consider.

Every delay in reform means more smokers lighting up cheap, cancer-causing cigarettes, more money funneled into the hands of organised crime, and more Australians denied access to safer alternatives.

ACIC has given us the evidence. Now it’s time for policymakers to admit the truth:

Australia’s nicotine policy isn’t saving lives, it’s propping up a black market.

And that is a national scandal!