The FCTC’s Fear of New Zealand: What Happens When Evidence Wins Against Ideology
- Alan Gor
- 28 minutes ago
- 4 min read
By Alan Gor 01 December 2025
Why New Zealand’s success is an existential threat to the WHO’s abstinence-only doctrine, and why Australia is held up as the obedient alternative.
For years, the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) has insisted that the only acceptable path to reducing smoking is abstinence:
no nicotine, no alternatives, no deviation.
Their message is simple:
Quit or die, but don’t you dare switch.
But standing right next door to Australia is a country that proves this ideology wrong every single day:
New Zealand.
And that’s precisely why the FCTC is terrified of it.
New Zealand’s Success Isn’t Just an Outlier, It’s an Inconvenient Truth
New Zealand reduced smoking faster than almost any other developed nation.
How?
Not bans.
Not criminalisation.
Not border seizures.
Not “quit or fail” messaging.
But through regulated, accessible, safer nicotine alternatives, including vaping and nicotine pouches.
NZ embraced harm reduction, the very thing the FCTC insists is dangerous, unproven, or “industry driven.”
The results?
Adult smoking reached historic lows
Young adult smoking collapsed
Illegal cigarette consumption dropped
Vaping became the most effective off-ramp from smoking
NZ moved closer to a smoke-free goal than countries following abstinence-only policies
This is a direct threat to the FCTC’s worldview.
Nicotine Is Not the Enemy and New Zealand Had the Courage to Admit It
This is the FCTC’s deepest fear.
New Zealand’s success is built on a principle now acknowledged by the Royal College of Physicians, ASH UK, and major university researchers:
Nicotine is not what kills smokers.
Smoke is.
Nicotine:
does not cause cancer
does not cause COPD
has minimal long-term cardiovascular risk when separated from combustion
is no more harmful than caffeine for most adults
is the reason quitting aids work
is the bridge that helps smokers break from deadly smoke
New Zealand followed this science.
Australia and the FCTC ran from it.
The FCTC treats nicotine as a moral failure.
New Zealand treats combustion as the real threat.
Only one of those approaches reduced smoking.
Why the FCTC Is Embarrassed by New Zealand
If New Zealand is right, the FCTC is wrong, not just a little wrong, but fundamentally wrong.
NZ proves:
1. Bans are unnecessary
NZ did not ban vapes.
Australia did and created one of the largest black markets on earth.
2. Prohibition is counterproductive
NZ saw smoking fall.
Australia saw smoking rise among young adults (and quietly pretends it didn’t).
3. Abstinence-only messaging fails
NZ told smokers the truth:
Vaping is safer than smoking, and switching is a legitimate choice.
Australia tells smokers:
Abstinence or nothing, and if you can’t quit the “approved” way, that’s your fault.
4. Harm reduction works
NZ’s entire model is a real-world demonstration of harm reduction outperforming ideology.
The FCTC can’t admit this because it would unravel 20 years of their anti-nicotine narrative.
Why the FCTC Prefers Australia Instead
If New Zealand embarrasses the FCTC, Australia comforts it.
Australia adopted and amplified the FCTC’s dogma:
prescription-only vaping
import bans
flavour bans
nicotine criminalisation
media-fuelled panic
“no safe level” slogans
no legal route for adult switching
police, border force, and customs as the enforcers of public health
Australia became the FCTC’s proof that ideology can be implemented at scale.
But look at the outcomes:
The illegal tobacco market exploded
Organised crime filled the demand
Violence against retailers escalated
Youth access worsened, not improved
Public trust in health messaging crumbled
Cigarettes remained easier to buy than nicotine replacement therapies
Instead of admitting failure, the FCTC praises Australia for “commitment.”
Commitment to what?
Not public health.
Commitment to ideology.
The Political Threat New Zealand Poses to the FCTC Narrative
New Zealand’s data isn’t just inconvenient, it’s destabilising.
It proves:
Adults can be trusted with safer alternatives
Regulated access suppresses black markets
Youth vaping can be managed without criminalising adults
Smoking declines accelerate when nicotine is decoupled from combustion
This threatens the FCTC’s central doctrine that all nicotine use is a moral failure.
New Zealand is right, then the FCTC:
misled governments
misrepresented evidence
weaponised youth panic
suppressed harm reduction
encouraged policies that increase harm
ignored the lived experience of millions of smokers
The FCTC can’t let this happen.
So instead of celebrating NZ, the FCTC marginalises it.
At COP10 and COP11:
NZ’s success was barely mentioned
NZ was framed as “too permissive”
Youth vaping statistics were exaggerated
Smoking declines were omitted
NZ delegates were subtly pressured to “align with international guidance”
Translation:
Admit nothing, don’t embarrass us, stick to the script.
Australia vs New Zealand: Two Countries, Two Philosophies
Australia:
Moralism
Prohibition
Abstinence ideologues dominating academia
Media panic
“Zero nicotine or zero credibility”
More smoking
More crime
No legal options
A public health establishment that punishes deviation
New Zealand:
Pragmatism
Harm reduction
Transparent regulation
Adult choice
Declining smoking
Reduced harm
Evidence-based policymaking
A health ministry not afraid to challenge the WHO
The outcomes speak for themselves, and the WHO knows it.
The FCTC’s Worst Nightmare: Evidence Beating Ideology
If New Zealand’s model spreads globally, and the FCTC loses:
control over the global nicotine narrative
the ability to portray vaping as a threat
the justification for abstinence-only dogma
political influence over national policies
decades of messaging about “no safe nicotine use”
And worst of all for them:
The public would see that harm reduction works and the FCTC was the barrier, not the solution.
New Zealand Is the Truth Australia Isn’t Allowed to See
New Zealand’s success exposes a simple, uncomfortable reality:
The FCTC is not protecting public health; it’s protecting its ideology.
Australia adopted that ideology blindly.
New Zealand rejected it and reduced smoking faster.
That’s why the FCTC fears New Zealand.
And that’s why Australia’s politicians pretend not to notice.